Ethnic groups’ response to the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Jean-Christophe Gaillard  Elsa Clavé  Océane Vibert  Azhari  Dedi  Jean-Charles Denain  Yusuf Efendi  Delphine Grancher  Catherine C. Liamzon  Desy Rosnita Sari  Ryo Setiawan 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(1):17-38

The 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami unfairly hit the different ethnic groups of Aceh, Indonesia. About 170,000 Acehnese and Minangkabau people died in the Northern tip of Sumatra while only 44 Simeulue people passed away in the neighbouring Simeulue island located near the earthquake epicentre. Such a difference in the death toll does not lie in the nature of the hazard but in different human behaviours and ethnic contexts. The present study draws on a contextual framework of analysis where people’s behaviour in the face of natural hazards is deeply influenced by the cultural, social, economic and political context. Questionnaire-based surveys among affected communities, key informant interviews and literature reviews show that the people of Simeulue detected the tsunami very early and then escaped to the mountains. On the other hand, Acehnese and Minangkabau people, respectively in the cities of Banda Aceh and Meulaboh, did not anticipate the phenomenon and were thus caught by the waves. The different behaviours of the victims have been commanded by the existence or the absence of a disaster subculture among affected communities as well as by their capacity to protect themselves in facing the tsunami. People’s behaviours and the capacity to protect oneself can be further tracked down to a deep tangle of intricate factors which include the armed conflict that has been affecting the province since the 1970s, the historical and cultural heritage and the national political economy system. This paper finally argues that the uneven impact of the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh lies in the different daily life conditions of the ethnic groups struck by the disaster.  相似文献   

Towards an integrated management framework for emerging disaster risks in Japan   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Saburo Ikeda  Teruko Sato  Teruki Fukuzono 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(2):267-280

An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of: (i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management. The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the 2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented.  相似文献   

辽宁暴雨诱发山洪灾害风险区划研究     

耿世波  聂哲  王瀛  方缘  肖光梁  李鸿强  纪永明  朱宪龙  周晓宇 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(4):153-160

基于自然灾害风险评估理论,利用2005—2019年辽宁省1639个自动站逐时降水观测资料、2017年辽宁省30 m分辨率的基础地理信息和山洪沟资料以及风险普查数据,对辽宁暴雨诱发山洪灾害风险区划进行研究,并将风险区划结果与历史山洪灾情进行对比分析。结果表明：通过山洪灾害与降水相关性统计发现,6 h暴雨作为辽宁省山洪致灾因子更为合适,因此构建了6 h综合利用分级暴雨强度及暴雨频次精细评估暴雨致灾危险性;山洪沟沟口高程、沟床比降及河网密度等资料可有效评估山洪孕灾环境敏感性;人口密度、耕地比例两个风险暴露度指标以及灾损敏感系数可大体评估承灾体的易损性;与历史山洪灾害空间和频率分布对比,山洪灾害的高发区与在本次风险区划高风险区基本吻合;精确到每个山洪沟风险区划的结果,提高了山洪灾害的风险区划精度,为辽宁暴雨诱发山洪灾害精准防御提供参考。  相似文献   

古建筑雷电灾害及防雷技术研究综述     

李京校  霍沛东  符琳  俞勇佩  张宇龙  李秀文 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(2):91-100

古建筑是宝贵的历史文化遗产,雷电灾害是威胁古建筑安全的主要因素之一。本文首先较完整地介绍了古建筑雷电灾害的总体研究进展,分别综述了古建筑构件的雷击破坏特征和机理,以及古建筑雷击起火灾害成因、方式和影响因素等方面研究现状,建议在雷击模拟试验基础上利用数值模拟分析方法研究雷击破坏基础性问题。分析了古建筑绝缘避雷与采用防雷装置接闪泄流两种方法,认为后者科学合理。通过归纳古建筑雷电防护技术研究进展、古建筑防雷新技术方法和装置,分析了古建筑防雷技术标准现状。最后,提出古建筑防雷有待深入研究的方向,包括开展古建筑雷击破坏机理、实用的防雷新技术、古建筑雷击选择性、雷击精细化监测预警等,特别是加强古建筑防雷新技术研究,尽量减小对古建筑原貌的影响,做好古建筑的防雷保护是非常关键和必要的。  相似文献   

北京世园会开幕式期间弱降水天气成因     

甘璐  郭金兰  雷蕾  邢楠 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(3):12-18

2019年4月28日傍晚到夜间,北京北部地区出现一次弱降雨天气,对中国北京世界园艺博览会开幕式相关活动的准备工作造成一定的影响。本文分析了此次弱强度、高影响降雨天气的成因,探讨了开幕式重大活动现场气象服务关注的重点。结果表明：世园会开幕式期间受到弱短波槽影响,动力条件较弱,北京处于高压后部和低压辐合区的前部,低层表现为下沉或弱上升运动;各数值模式对此次降雨过程的预报总体均有所反应,但在降雨出现的时间和范围上未表现出明显的优势;利用地面自动站、风廓线和云雷达等多种高分辨率探测资料,结合精细化模式预报产品,有助于预报人员精准研判降水系统短时的变化特征。重大活动气象保障往往关注单点预报,将天气影响的风险预报服务与应对预案相结合,通过采取一定的服务策略,可以有效弥补预报的不足,更好地发挥气象服务效益。  相似文献   

2001—2020年中国洪涝灾害损失与致灾危险性研究     

李莹  赵珊珊 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(2):154-165

利用最新的全国洪涝灾害损失资料以及气象站点降水观测资料,研究了2001—2020年中国洪涝灾害损失的演变特征及其与降水的关系。结果表明：2001—2020年,我国洪涝灾害造成的年均受灾人口超过1亿人次,直接经济损失1678.6亿元。尽管洪涝灾害造成的全国直接经济损失有增加趋势,但全国农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、死亡人口、损坏房屋以及直接经济损失占国内生产总值的比例均呈减少趋势。从空间分布来看,长江流域上中游地区及黑龙江、河北、甘肃、广西等地是洪涝灾害损失较为严重的地区。全国大部分地区死亡人口和损坏房屋呈减少趋势,直接经济损失呈增加趋势,而受灾人口和农作物受灾面积呈北增南减的变化趋势。近10年,我国北方大部分地区除了死亡人口外其余各项损失均较上个10年增加,其中黑龙江和河北增加幅度较大。同时,近10年我国北方大部分地区降水量增加,尤其是黑龙江、河北等地暴雨量和暴雨日数增加幅度较大,加剧了相对脆弱的北方地区的洪涝灾害风险。  相似文献   

南盘江盆地中三叠统复理石韵律的马尔科夫链特征及其地质意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

张成凤  吕洪波  夏邦栋  方中 《地质论评》2011,57(5):632-640

本文利用南盘江盆地中三叠统复理石韵律的野外测量数据,从马尔柯夫链原理出发,对其进行了频数转移矩阵、概率转移矩阵、极限概率矩阵和环流矩阵等沉积旋回最优分解综合分析.分析过程中发现并命名了循环链和二级循环链,并对循环链进行了特殊处理.通过分析模拟获得的状态循环模式图,建立了不同地点实测段的代表性韵律结构模式并绘制了韵律结构...  相似文献   

基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的大连城市用水量预测   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

赵晓梅  盖美 《水文》2011,31(1):66-69,87

对城市用水量的科学预测是城市水资源合理开发、利用和管理的基础。在传统灰色预测模型的基础上建立了等维新息灰色预测模型,并利用马尔可夫链预测模型预测出结果的波动范围,形成等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型。再以1998~2007年大连城市用水量实测值作为原始数据,构建预测模型,预测其2008~2012年用水量。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测结果的误差更小,精度更高。该预测结果可以为大连未来城市供水规划提供参考依据。  相似文献   

德钦县城地质灾害成因及治理效益评价     

蔡芝仙  张祖厚 《云南地质》2011,30(2):171-173

分析德钦县城地质灾害多发原因,针对特殊的地质环境采取的灾害治理的措施取得的治理效益评价。  相似文献   

Free software: A review,in the context of disaster management     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

This article examines the nature of freely available geospatial software and information systems in the context of disaster management. The use of geospatial data is crucial to effective disaster management, from preparedness to response and recovery. However, to make efficient use of available data and information – before, during and after a disaster – reliable software is required. The software applications examined in this paper range from Geographical Information Systems, to the processing of remotely sensed images, crowd-source mapping, web applications and content management systems. Trends and challenges are considered, and guidelines are given, to foster and encourage the provision of information by Freeware and Open Source Software. Free geoinformatics can help to optimize the limited financial, technological and manpower resources that many organisations face, providing a sustainable input to analytical activities.  相似文献